16 Apr '04 - + 71 - 55 One down - fourteen to go
Last night, the St. Louis Blues became the first team to wash out of
the tournament. Well, at least they made it - for the 25th straight
time, no less.
Fourteen more teams will curse, whine, and moan their way back to their
couches and teeboxes between now and the end of June... possibly
starting tonight, when the New York Islanders face elimination on the
road. Will they respond like the Canadiens and force another
revenue-generating home game? Or will they join the Blues on the
sidelines?
No team, even one down 3-0 in a series, believes that they're certain
to lose the next game. Down 3-0, a team thinks their opponent is more
likely to be overconfident and less likely to want the victory as much
as they do. Teams down 3-1 on the road know they've won before, and
know that making it a one-game series leads to a home game... and
winning the home game means forcing a game seven. Everybody knows
anything can happen in a game seven, right?
Sure, teams up 3-0 have only lost the series twice in the history of
professional sports - but it's happened. And no team this year even has
to overcome that much. The worst any team is in the hole (with the
exception of the eliminated Blues) is 3-1, and there were two comebacks
from that position just last year. On the whole, the underdog wins
those series almost 10% of the time. You think any of the teams down
3-1 right now aren't thinking they could be part of that minority? By
the time they hit the ice for their game five, most of them will be
convinced of it.
And some of them might be right.