06 Apr '04 - + 64 - 56 Western Conference playoff preview

I know that there are hundreds of people out there wondering what my picks for the playoffs are. Well, wait no longer! Today I unveil the surefire winners of the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
A quick side note before I begin: last year, I came in 28th out of 30 people in my office playoff pool. And I think some of the people that beat me were people with bad eyesight trying to fill out an NCAA men's basketball bracket. #8 Nashville Predators at #1 Detroit Red Wings
No first-round series has less goalie experience than this one. No series this year will, either, unless Boston meets Nashville in the Finals. Legace's whopping 10 minutes of playoff time still puts him ahead of Vokoun, who has never made a playoff appearance. He wasn't exactly likely to while playing for the Predators, either. Still, Vokoun has almost twice as much regular-season experience than Legace. It doesn't look like the goalies make for good predictors in this series, although I have to give the edge in net to the Predators.
Unfortunately for them, that's the only place they get an edge. Despite having, technically, a better record in the season series (3-2-0-1, which gives the Wings a paradoxical 3-3), Nashville hasn't beat Detroit in several months - all of Nashville's wins were early in the season. After that, Detroit pounded them a couple of games before coasting to an overtime win last time these two met.
I've seen plenty of pundit predictions for this year's playoffs, but I have yet to see someone pick Nashville to make it out of the first round. Everyone wants to talk about how great this matchup is, but nobody even thinks the Predators can make it a six-game series. I disagree. They might make it a six-game series. But that's it. If it's any consolation to the Predators, their fans are probably happy enough that the team finally made the playoffs. Detroit, on the other hand, will probably stage a group lynching if the Wings get ousted two years running. Wings in five.
#7 St. Louis Blues at #2 San Jose Sharks
After watching these two teams split their season series, you might be tempted to think these teams were evenly matched. They even scored the same number of goals in those games - nine total for each team. But I would caution against underestimating this Sharks team. It stuns me that all the media going agog over the Dallas Stars and their amazing turnaround didn't ever notice that despite the Stars' incredible stretch over the last fifty games, they were unable to ever catch this team. I'm not downplaying the Dallas team - far from it. In fact, a Dallas-San Jose matchup would be a phenomenal series. This should not be. St. Louis struggled mightily to make the postseason, and only made it in because of crumbling finishes by the Kings and the Oilers. They've turned their ship around, no doubt about it, and they deserve to be here. But do not confuse this San Jose team with last year's model; anyone who watched them play can tell you these Sharks are for real.
If the Blues have any one thing going for them, it will be in goal. Nabokov has postseason experience, but Osgood is an old hand at this. He's one of only three goaltenders playing in the postseason that can really be considered a seasoned veteran, and if he can lend some poise and confidence to his team they could make a run at the Sharks. Still, I'll take San Jose in six games.
#6 Calgary Flames at #3 Vancouver Canucks
This is the first series in which I'm actually tempted to pick the road team. Without Bertuzzi, the Vancouver offense should suffer. Cloutier may have more experience than his cross-ice counterpart Mikka Kiprusoff, but it's not favorable experience - he's 9-12 with a miserable 3.43 GAA in the postseason. Meanwhile Calgary has been playing tight, tough hockey for weeks - the kind of hockey that wins playoff series - and Kiprusoff has been as solid as possible down the stretch.
On the other hand, Vancouver has clamped down defensively since Bertuzzi's suspension, and the Canucks look a lot more like a playoff-style team than the one that lost to the Wild last year. They managed to snatch the division title right out of the jaws of the ultra-talented Colorado Avalanche at the last minute. And it's not just Cloutier that has more experience than his Calgary opponent; the Canucks have made the playoffs for three straight years. Calgary hasn't made it for seven straight. And Vancouver simply has better depth. So I'm tempted, believe me, but I'll take Vancouver in seven.
#5 Dallas Stars at #4 Colorado Avalanche
If you can call the fifth seed beating the fourth an "upset", then this is my sole upset pick in the West. I'm sure the Stars are hoping I'm wrong about Vancouver - a second round matchup against San Jose sounds a lot better than traveling to Joe Louis arena. But I have a hunch that at this point they're much more concerned about the Colorado series.
And they should be. Even without Kariya, who is sidelined "indefinitely", the Avs are one of the most talent-laden teams in hockey. Dallas has run into its own injury problems recently, missing Arnott, Barnes, Klemm, Zubov, Numminen, and Young for most of the last five games. When Morrow left the arena limping on Sunday, Dallas fans had to be holding their breath.
But all key players for Dallas are expected to take the ice Wednesday with the exception of Young. And while Turco's postseason experience isn't extensive, he's at least a year into it. Last year he was in the same spot Aebischer is in now, which is to say a completely inexperienced playoff goalie playing on a team with high expectations. Colorado, for all their heralded top two lines, has nowhere near the 20-man roster that Dallas is rolling out, and pickups Corson and Bure look like genius moves with the way they've melded into the lineup. With the edge in goal and in depth, look for Dallas to hold their own against the Avalanche and get key goals from their third and fourth lines to win the series. Dallas in six games.